These predictions of Bitcoin’s price for 2020 show that predicting the value of BTC is as useless as choosing lottery numbers.
Crypto experts and analysts love to issue Bitcoin price predictions (BTC) regardless of how volatile the asset class is.
In 2017, there were predictions that the price of BTC would reach USD 35,000 – USD 50,000 and, of course, some brave souls predicted that the price would exceed USD 1 million before being corrected.
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No one will forget how John McAfee infamously promised to bite his own genitals if the price of BTC didn’t reach $1 million by 2020.
While some of these high estimates are based on fundamentals, others are completely unfounded. Regardless of the analyst’s reasoning, some of them are so far removed from reality that they have become memes.
Let’s review Bitcoin’s most outrageous price predictions for 2020.
“Guessing” attracts attention because no one follows them
Guessing the future price of cryptomonies is so integrated into the community that many analysts do not even consider evaluating their effectiveness. Keeping up with the endless stream of predictions broadcast on blogs, podcasts, Twitter and YouTube is almost impossible. Imagine the difficulty and energy it would take for one person to keep track of all these random assumptions.
To complicate matters even further, some of these predictions come from well-known Bitcoin attackers, such as the famous gold ringer, Peter Schiff, and New York University Stern School of Business professor, Nouriel Roubini. So, in some cases, personal credentials sometimes matter less than analytical working models.
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A month before the March 12 collapse, in which Bitcoin’s price plummeted 50% to $3,750, PlanB, the creator of the stock-to-flow model, declared that Bitcoin would never again fall below $8,200. At that time, no one expected the Dow Jones stock index to face its most significant drop since 1987, nor did they expect the WTI oil futures contract to fall to a negative $40.
Despite the outlandish claim, PlanB will not be nominated for the worst predictions of 2020 because almost no one expected the coronavirus pandemic to affect the markets in a way that would cause absolute chaos. In addition, the famous chartist, Peter Brandt, also made the same mistake when he said that BTC would never again visit the level of less than USD 6,000 in January.
CryptoWhale’s quantum model predicts USD 24,000 BTC by mid 2022
On June 2, 2020, Twitter analyst CryptoWhale revealed a new “quantum” model that would predict the price of Bitcoin. According to CryptoWhale, the model had “effectively predicted all major movements since 2018”.
Things couldn’t have gotten any worse since the model predicted both a $2,000 fund in 2020 and a “proper run-up to $24,000” only in mid-2022. Somehow, the quantum particles, molecules and atoms that were supposed to make it more accurate were, in fact, pure blasphemy.
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Two lessons that can be drawn from the “quantum model” are (1) Having a ton of followers on social networks does not necessarily translate into better price estimates, and (2) complex models are prone to the same errors as humans. Evaluating a new asset class during a period of desperate central bank monetary easing is no easy task.
Ross Ulbricht predicts nine months of decline after Black Thursday
In April, Ross Ulbricht, founder of the now-defunct Darknet market, Silk Road, wrote that Bitcoin’s volatility, particularly the March 12 bloodbath, would likely lead to a bearish market, which could last three to nine months. At the time, Bitcoin had been hovering around the $7,000 mark and was clearly still affected by the recent 50% intraday correction.